Green Bay Packers General Manager Ted Thompson almost exclusively builds his roster through the draft. Green Bay is always one of the youngest teams in the National Football League because they will let veterans go and replace them with younger talent which they hope will be better in a couple years. Some of their drafted talent reaches blue-chip potential though meaning they need to be kept as a Green Bay Packer. Jordy Nelson is up for a contract this off-season, but he would like an extension done before the season even starts for Green Bay. This seems like a slam dunk decision if I have ever seen one despite all of the young receiver talent around the Packers roster.Packers might have the best bargain in the game with Nelson. He gets paid 4.2 million a year as a base salary with obvious bonuses. He ended up turning around two great seasons for the Packers with having over 1,300 yards in 2013 with eight touchdowns. In 2011, he had over 1,200 yards with 15 touchdowns during this contract. Nelson has became the number one receiver for the Packers as he is truly versatile wideout where he can be used as an underneath or vertical receiver. It is hard to argue with Nelson being a top 10, top 20 receiver at worst in the entire NFL getting paid only four million dollars a year.
Nelson will get paid in a major way with this upcoming extension or contract. Nelson is probably not owed Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald money where they are making over 16 million dollars a year. But he is definitely owed what Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe and Percy Harvin are making which comes in around 12 million dollars a year. The problem that comes in here is Green Bay has 12 million dollars of cap space right now meaning Thompson will have to maneuver around some things around to reach the goal of likely eight to eleven million dollars. Nelson hasn't pointed out what the desired price is for his new contract, but the assumption is he wants to be paid like a top notch wide receiver.
The best guess I would have for Nelson and his contract would be 36 to 39 million dollars over three years or 48 million to 52 million dollars over four years. Likely the Packers would want a four-year deal to spread out the money versus the three-year deal where there is more immediacy. Nelson would rather have the three year deal given he would be 32 years old when he has to do free agency again. It's likely Green Bay wouldn't sign him in 2017, but there were would be a boatload of teams willing to pay for an older talented receiver. Nelson should be paid this level, and Green Bay would be wise to give him his money because 31 teams in the NFL would give him this payday.
There is no reason to believe Green Bay will not pay Nelson, but some might think with the addition of Davante Adams, Jared Abbrederis and Jeff Janis, they would be fine with a new receiving core including giving Randall Cobb a new contract (Another blog post for another time). That's foolish to think that way and very pessimistic to think Thompson will not take care of his own. Additionally, there is no guarantee any of these guys will be good NFL players. Just because there are alluring things about Adams, Abbrederis and Janis doesn't equate to them being vital players for the Packers. It is hard to think of a situation where the Packers wouldn't re-sign Nelson.
It is not if but when Nelson gets his new deal. It would be ideal if the Packers got it done before Training Camp gets underway in July. Because after Nelson, comes Cobb likely to start building the pillars for the Packers offense in the next three to five years.
Charlie.
