Senin, 05 Mei 2014

SnoTap's NBA Second Round Preview



2014 NBA Playoffs delivered the best first round in NBA history. The second round is filled with a great deal of intrigue and drama. We break down both conferences in the same way we did the first round looking at a reason each team will win plus an X-Factor with a prediction. 
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1.) San Antonio Spurs vs. 5.) Portland Trail Blazers 
Game 1: Tuesday May 6th 8:30 pm TNT
Game 2: Thursday May 8th 8:30 pm ESPN2
Game 3: Saturday May 10th 9:30 pm ESPN
Game 4: Monday May 12th 9:30 pm TNT
Game 5 (Wednesday) Game 6 (Friday) Game 7 (Sunday) -  If Necessary

Reason Spurs win: Tony Parker plays like he did in Game 7 against Dallas for the whole series. A dirty little secret about Damian Lillard is he does not really play much defense. Wes Matthews is their stopper, and he did fine against James Harden yet I don't know if he can keep up with Parker for a whole game so I will expect to see

Reason Blazers win: I am trying to figure out who guards LaMarcus Aldridge in this game. Tiago Splitter? Tim Duncan? Probably a combination of those two guys, but LMA can take these guys outside of the post which is huge for the team allowing Lillard and Matthews to get into the lane. He can also get both of them in foul trouble which is equally important. I could see another big series for Aldridge. He averaged 21 points a game with eight rebounds a game in three meetings with the Spurs this year.  

X Factors:  Spurs - Tim Duncan,  Blazers - Thomas Robinson - We haven't really seen a vintage Duncan performance yet in the playoffs. 17 points is one of his lowest average of his playoff career and only pulling down around eight rebounds is his lowest rebound total since the 2009 season. I am throwing T-Rob in there because he showed some flashes against Houston, and Portland will need a better post effort from a guy not named LaMarcus. I am throwing T-Rob out there. 

Prediction: Spurs in six - Do I want to pick Portland?  Yes, yes I do. But I am trying not buy into the hype because they beat a poor defensive team in Houston where in multiple games, they came back late in the game. I doubt Portland will be able to do that against San Antonio. One name we haven't mentioned is Danny Green and he could be someone lying in the weeds for the Spurs.

2.) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 3.) Los Angeles Clippers 
Game 1: Monday May 5th 8:30 pm TNT
Game 2: Wednesday May 7th 8:30 pm TNT
Game 3: Friday May 9th 9:30 pm ESPN
Game 4: Sunday May 11th 2:30 pm ABC
Game 5: (Tuesday) Game 6 (Thursday) Game 7 (Saturday) - If Necessary

Reason Thunder win: Durant continues to light the world on fire. Reggie Miller said on the Dan Patrick Show today that 'The newspaper thing could be the best thing for him (Durant).'  I agree with him, and it would make me very nervous if I were a Clippers fan. Durant averaged 32 points a game in four matchups with the Clippers which is one of the highest outputs against teams KD played four times this season. I think we could see an inspired Durant's performance where he takes over multiple times, and Russell Westbrook takes a little bit of a backseat.  

Reason Clippers win: Blake Griffin takes over in multiple ways. Oklahoma City does not have much post depth past Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Steven Adams. Blake found ways to exploit Golden State's weak interior play, and he could do the same with Oklahoma City even if Ibaka is a better player than anything the Dubs had in Round 1. How the games are called will be a huge factor in Griffin's success because if they let Oklahoma City beat him up, he will need to adjust his game. 

X Factors:  Thunder - Reggie Jackson, Clippers - DeAndre Jordan - Couple obvious ones but they are equally important to the team's success. Jackson needs to equalize Darren Collison. He also bailed out Westbrook and Durant before, and can do it again. Jordan makes Los Angeles a different team when he is scoring and rebounding in double digits especially with his scoring. Jordan seems like he has some confidence and could handle the Thunder's inside group. 

Prediction: Clippers in seven -  Easily, the best series out of the four in the second round. Los Angeles can win on the road. I think they will do it in seven given their inside game with Griffin and Jordan. The only thing that worries me is Chris Paul's health against Russell Westbrook. Odds are he will not pick us Russ very often, but Paul could become very worn down. If that happens, Oklahoma City might just win the war of attrition.   

1.) Indiana Pacers vs. 5.) Washington Wizards
Game 1: Monday May 5th 6:00 pm TNT
Game 2: Wednesday May 7th 6:00 pm TNT
Game 3: Friday May 9th 7:00 pm ESPN
Game 4: Sunday May 11th 7:00 pm TNT
Game 5: (Tuesday) Game 6 (Thursday) Game 7 (Saturday) - If Necessary

Reason Pacers win: They play like a team. It is that simple. This team won their first 33 of 40 games for a reason. They played like a cohesive unit. I realize they won back-to-back games to finish off Atlanta, but I am still not convinced this team is truly united right now. Indiana plays like one and not individuals, they will blow through this series.  
Reason Wizards win: Bradley Beal and John Wall come up massive. Paul George will likely pick up one of the them, but can he keep up with either of them in terms of quickness? Same goes for Lance Stephenson. If they play up-tempo and make Indiana play Washington's game, they could really do some big things. I really do think the guards of Washington could have some real big series. 

X Factors:  Pacers - Roy Hibbert, Wizards - Trevor Ariza - Yes we need to see Roy Hibbert come to play finally. He played well in Game 7 and against the bigger Wizards team could give Hibbert more an opportunity to work yet Marcin Gortat and Nene are badass dudes meaning Hibbert needs to keep his composure out there. Ariza could be huge for this team. We talked about his postseason performance last time around too, but what makes him important this round is the fact, he will be on Mr. George and containing him will be a tall task. If he does it well, Wizards have a good shot at winning the series. 

Prediction: Wizards in six -  Given the personalities in this series, I think we are going to see some chippy stuff from each side of the aisle in these games. I like the guards of Washington better than I do, Indiana's and I don't think Hibbert is all there. Until Indiana proves me otherwise, I am not ready to buy in to this team. If they light the world on fire, we can have a new discussion. 

2.) Miami Heat vs. 6.) Brooklyn Nets 
Game 1: Tuesday May 6th 6:00 pm TNT
Game 2: Thursday May 8th 6:00 pm ESPN2
Game 3: Saturday May 10th 7:00 pm ABC
Game 4: Monday May 12th 7:00 pm TNT
Game 5 (Wednesday) Game 6 (Friday) Game 7 (Sunday) - If Necessary

Reason Heat win: They need to have a good Chris Bosh come alive. What went under the radar is Bosh only averaged 14.5 points a game in their sweep against Charlotte. He can bring the big bruisers of Brooklyn outside of the paint creating more opportunities for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to slash into the paint. He has seen Kevin Garnett in May before, and this time, Bosh is the much better player.  

Reason Nets win: Deron Williams becomes Deron Williams of old. Honestly, this Nets team can win the series. Paul Pierce and KG need to be big yet Williams actually having a say in the offense is the biggest key. Mario Chalmers is a decent enough defender, but Williams can still do some things to cut out what Chalmers wants to do on the defensive end. In three games against Miami, he only averaged seven points a game. That cannot happen if the Nets want to advance. 
X Factors:  Heat- Mario Chalmers, Nets - Marcus Thornton -  Heat need to find more scoring. They always seem to go through this at one point of the playoffs where only the Big Three are scoring and no one else. Chalmers did nothing in the four games against Charlotte and that cannot happen again if this team wants to win. Thornton is a microwave. If he gets hot, look out. And they might need a 'Marcus Thornton game' where he has 30 points making seven threes to win the series, he has found his way into some moments in the playoffs thus far.

Prediction: Heat in seven -  This will also be a nasty series with a ton of chippiness given the rivalry between Pierce and Garnett versus LeBron and Ray Allen. Also the fact Brooklyn won all four times they met this year doesn't sit well with the Heat either. Game 1 is huge. If Miami comes out tired from the layoff, Brooklyn will think they belong in the series. I think it goes the distance with LeBron James shutting the door in Game 7 with an iconic performance. 

Charlie.

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